There’s been a lot of talk regarding the future of Adobe Flash thanks to the blockade generated by Apple on the iPad and iPhone. It’s been covered extensively by the news media and blogs, but I figured as a Flash developer/designer, I’d chime in.

To paint a picture of my stance, I will say that:

1. I hope open-source OGG format replaces Flash video. Flash has standardized a ubiquitous video format for the Web, and it’s wonderful evolution we can’t deny. Gone are the days of multiple encodings for Quicktime, Real Player, and Windows Media, and I doubt supervision excluding a for-profit company would have succeeded. That said, I think the Web has evolved, and the fact that HTML 5 has dropped OGG as the definitive format is a politically-driven mistake. We, as the creators of the Web, should be embracing an open video format.
2. I’m not an Adobe fanboy. Flash provides a format of expression unlike any other, and while I admit that Flash work is my bread-and-butter (and that I’m coincidentally wearing Adobe-branded apparel as I write this), I recognize Adobe is a company that answers to its shareholders. Frankly, their Open Screen Project and claims of Flash being an “open” platform register strictly as propaganda to me, and I felt the need to point out this stance because of the opinions I’ve encountered at some Adobe user groups.
3. I don’t believe HTML 5 is the Messiah. I support universal formats that ensure consistency between browsers. However, formats, while well-intentioned, don’t always reach the Web–they are ultimately dictated by the market. If that wasn’t the case, we’d all be discussing XHTML 2.0 instead of HTML 5 and be visiting .MOBI sites instead of using Webkit on our phones.
4. Flash isn’t going anywhere. Flash is used for more than just the Web–it’s great for standalone applications, and its games can’t be successfully emulated with HTML + JS. Furthermore, it allows for data without browser refreshing, and provides a more media-rich interactive experience. Regarding standards, see #3.
5. I want to see Flash Player on the iPad and the iPhone, but I believe this responsibility falls to Adobe.

I think something many in the Flash community fail to realize is that Flash Player doesn’t play well on mobile, and it’s not exclusive to Apple products. I know firsthand, as I considered purchasing a Nokia N900 as a result of Apple’s embargo. I checked out Flash Player 9.4 on the N900′s browser while stopping in at NYC’s Nokia Store, and the performance was nothing short of atrocious. YouTube videos were so choppy that they weren’t viewable, and simple Flash sites crashed the browser.

I should mention that the N900 is powered by the same ARM Cortex-A8 processor as the iPhone 3GS (the 3GS is underclocked to 600 Mhz). Sure, there are videos of Google’s Nexus One playing Flash Player 10.1, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nexus One’s Snapdragon 1 GHz processor is concealing Flash Player’s inherent memory issues.

Reinforcement for this argument is Mozilla’s decision to drop Flash Player support for their mobile Firefox browser just prior to launch. I’m still amazed that this hasn’t garnered as much press as the iPad announcement.

This brings me back to the title of this topic–the Future of Adobe Flash.

Personally, I wonder if Adobe might have lost its way. Their community support is excellent, and I use their industry-standard tools every day, however, they’ve seemingly become obsessed with supporting a proprietary platform instead of focusing on building excellent tools, and their evangelists seem to point outward for blame rather than looking within. As I mentioned in #5, I want to see Flash Player arrive on all of Apple’s products, however, I think this falls upon Adobe improving the player’s performance. As for my predictions:

1. Flash Player goes truly open source and somehow gets included in the HTML 5 spec. Sadly, this is unlikely, as Adobe licenses proprietary video codecs for HE-AAC and h.264. More importantly, it’d likely affect Adobe’s bottom line.
2. Adobe publishes an API for Actionscript that supports gestures. Gestureworks is already providing this, and Adobe’s not far behind. Personally, I’m holding my breath for official Flash SWF support.
3. Adobe starts building applications that publish content for HTML 5 and mobile platforms.

Obviously, #1 and #2 are less predictions than #3, but I think it’d be refreshing for Adobe to begin exploring these new mobile outlets as opportunities to provide new software. Can you imagine a software that publishes iPhone, Blackberry, and MeeGo apps–without doing translations from Flash? Now that would truly be interesting . . .